Israel-Gaza Conflict
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Black Ambrosia
Well-Known Member
How did Israel and the U.S. miss what Hamas was planning?
“This is Israel’s 9/11. Not since 1973 has there been such a catastrophic intelligence failure in Israel," said one U.S. intel expert. A senior U.S. official said, "We were not tracking this."
Oct. 7, 2023, 2:57 PM EDT
The surprise attack by Palestinian militants on Israel suggests a massive intelligence failure as the Israeli government appeared blindsided by the infiltration of Hamas fighters across the southern border and the launch of thousands of rockets.
The Hamas assault by air, land and sea also raised questions as to why U.S. intelligence agencies apparently did not see it coming, experts and former intelligence officials said.
U.S. officials said that if the Israelis knew an attack was imminent, they did not share it with Washington.
“We were not tracking this,” one senior U.S. military official told NBC News.
U.S. officials are discussing enhancing intelligence sharing with the Israelis to support the Israeli government in response to the Hamas attack, according to a U.S. official and a source familiar with the discussions.
The additional intelligence to Israel could include information gathered from drones, eavesdropping and satellites, but the officials did not elaborate.
The onslaught took place a day after the 50th anniversary of the 1973 Arab-Israeli war and carried echoes of that conflict, when Israel was caught flat-footed by a coordinated offensive by its Arab neighbors, led by Egypt and Syria.
“This is Israel’s 9/11. Not since 1973 has there been such a catastrophic intelligence failure in Israel,” said Marc Polymeropoulous, who worked for 26 years for the CIA, where he specialized in counterterrorism, the Middle East and South Asia.
Israel’s intelligence services have long been seen as some of the most capable in the world, with an array of human intelligence, eavesdropping and other technical means blanketing the West Bank and Gaza.
“This is Israel’s 9/11. Not since 1973 has there been such a catastrophic intelligence failure in Israel," said one U.S. intel expert. A senior U.S. official said, "We were not tracking this."
Oct. 7, 2023, 2:57 PM EDT
The surprise attack by Palestinian militants on Israel suggests a massive intelligence failure as the Israeli government appeared blindsided by the infiltration of Hamas fighters across the southern border and the launch of thousands of rockets.
The Hamas assault by air, land and sea also raised questions as to why U.S. intelligence agencies apparently did not see it coming, experts and former intelligence officials said.
U.S. officials said that if the Israelis knew an attack was imminent, they did not share it with Washington.
“We were not tracking this,” one senior U.S. military official told NBC News.
U.S. officials are discussing enhancing intelligence sharing with the Israelis to support the Israeli government in response to the Hamas attack, according to a U.S. official and a source familiar with the discussions.
The additional intelligence to Israel could include information gathered from drones, eavesdropping and satellites, but the officials did not elaborate.
The onslaught took place a day after the 50th anniversary of the 1973 Arab-Israeli war and carried echoes of that conflict, when Israel was caught flat-footed by a coordinated offensive by its Arab neighbors, led by Egypt and Syria.
“This is Israel’s 9/11. Not since 1973 has there been such a catastrophic intelligence failure in Israel,” said Marc Polymeropoulous, who worked for 26 years for the CIA, where he specialized in counterterrorism, the Middle East and South Asia.
Israel’s intelligence services have long been seen as some of the most capable in the world, with an array of human intelligence, eavesdropping and other technical means blanketing the West Bank and Gaza.
“It is almost inconceivable how they missed this,” said Polymeropoulous.
It was also unclear why U.S. intelligence agencies apparently did not see the attack coming, as well as friendly Arab states such as Egypt, Jordan, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, he said. “I am stunned.”
But Colin Clarke, senior research fellow at The Soufan Center, a nonprofit that focuses on global security issues, said Israel had to bear the main responsibility for failing to anticipate Saturday’s attack.
“Israel has exquisite, world-class intelligence collection and analysis capabilities and would have a far better picture of what’s going on in its own backyard. This one falls squarely on the Israelis,” he said.
Clarke added it was an open question whether recent domestic political turmoil in Israel had possibly played a role in the apparent intelligence failure.
David Friedman, who was U.S. ambassador to Israel in the Trump administration, said: “In the 40 or more years that I’ve been following Israel one way or another, I’ve never seen this happen. I’ve never seen the border breached in this manner. Usually, even one person from Gaza gets close to the border, they’re intercepted and neutralized long before they can do anything. This is just something I’ve never seen before. It’s of course a large intelligence failure.”
U.S. officials said early assessments are that the timing of the Hamas attack was related to signs that a deal normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel was close to being clinched. They also said that the 50-year anniversary of the 1973 Arab-Israeli war also may have been a factor.
In the wake of the attack, both Hamas and Hezbollah said the attack represented a warning to any Muslim country seeking to strike peace with Israel.
Hamas spokesman Ibrahim Hamad said on Al Jazeera television that the attack on Israel is “absolutely a message” to Muslim countries seeking normalization with Israel. He urged them to absolve themselves of this “great shame.”
The Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported that senior Israeli military officers and officials had assessed, as recently as last week, that Hamas wanted to avoid a full-blown conflict with Israel. NBC News could not immediately verify that report.
“I’m truly astonished for something of this magnitude to go down and for the Israelis to have no clue that this is about to happen. I’m just speechless,” said Clarke, of The Soufan Center. “They have had sources inside these Palestinian groups for years.”
CIA Director William Burns was due to give a keynote speech Saturday at a national security conference in Georgia organized by the Cipher Brief media outlet but canceled because of the crisis in Israel, his spokesperson, Tammy Thorp, said.
For the moment, Israel — and the United States — are preoccupied with the immediate crisis but in time there will inevitably be demands for an inquiry as to how Israel could have been caught off guard by such a large-scale and sophisticated attack, experts said.
It was also unclear why U.S. intelligence agencies apparently did not see the attack coming, as well as friendly Arab states such as Egypt, Jordan, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, he said. “I am stunned.”
But Colin Clarke, senior research fellow at The Soufan Center, a nonprofit that focuses on global security issues, said Israel had to bear the main responsibility for failing to anticipate Saturday’s attack.
“Israel has exquisite, world-class intelligence collection and analysis capabilities and would have a far better picture of what’s going on in its own backyard. This one falls squarely on the Israelis,” he said.
Clarke added it was an open question whether recent domestic political turmoil in Israel had possibly played a role in the apparent intelligence failure.
David Friedman, who was U.S. ambassador to Israel in the Trump administration, said: “In the 40 or more years that I’ve been following Israel one way or another, I’ve never seen this happen. I’ve never seen the border breached in this manner. Usually, even one person from Gaza gets close to the border, they’re intercepted and neutralized long before they can do anything. This is just something I’ve never seen before. It’s of course a large intelligence failure.”
U.S. officials said early assessments are that the timing of the Hamas attack was related to signs that a deal normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel was close to being clinched. They also said that the 50-year anniversary of the 1973 Arab-Israeli war also may have been a factor.
In the wake of the attack, both Hamas and Hezbollah said the attack represented a warning to any Muslim country seeking to strike peace with Israel.
Hamas spokesman Ibrahim Hamad said on Al Jazeera television that the attack on Israel is “absolutely a message” to Muslim countries seeking normalization with Israel. He urged them to absolve themselves of this “great shame.”
The Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported that senior Israeli military officers and officials had assessed, as recently as last week, that Hamas wanted to avoid a full-blown conflict with Israel. NBC News could not immediately verify that report.
“I’m truly astonished for something of this magnitude to go down and for the Israelis to have no clue that this is about to happen. I’m just speechless,” said Clarke, of The Soufan Center. “They have had sources inside these Palestinian groups for years.”
CIA Director William Burns was due to give a keynote speech Saturday at a national security conference in Georgia organized by the Cipher Brief media outlet but canceled because of the crisis in Israel, his spokesperson, Tammy Thorp, said.
For the moment, Israel — and the United States — are preoccupied with the immediate crisis but in time there will inevitably be demands for an inquiry as to how Israel could have been caught off guard by such a large-scale and sophisticated attack, experts said.
Black Ambrosia
Well-Known Member
january noir
Sunny On a Cloudy Day
One of my close friend's family members lived on the attacked kibbutz. One family member is confirmed dead, and two children are missing.
They don't know whether they are alive or dead. Their family is devastated. I hope to get an update soon.
They don't know whether they are alive or dead. Their family is devastated. I hope to get an update soon.
vevster
Well-Known Member
One of my best friends told me he was vacationing in Greece. Then I get a text over the weekend that Israel was being bombed and to keep him and his wife in my prayers. I was like WHY? YOU‘RE IN GREECE. So now I hear about him being on a cruise with 3 stops: Greece, Israel, and Turkey. He was about to tour Israel when the bombing started.
Long story short he is fine.
Long story short he is fine.
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january noir
Sunny On a Cloudy Day
Thank God!
Rastafarai
Well-Known Member
Apartheid regimes are alive and well. But to expect a people to continue enduring it without retaliation? Every effect, has a cause.
nysister
Well-Known Member
They didn't miss it. Chances are they planned it. It gives them an excuse to wipe out Palestine with little repercussion. I'm just curious as to who they did it with. Iran? That would be interesting.
Mankind's inhumanity to other humans. It's just sad. So many Innocents will, and have died.
ScorpioBeauty09
Well-Known Member
Egypt already said they warned Netanyahu at least 10 days before it happened. At first Israel denied it, Egypt didn't back down and then Israeli media confirmed it. Netanyahu moved Israeli forces away from the Gaza-Israel border to focus on the illegal settlements/apartheid in the West Bank. The whole justification for allowing Israelis to live close to the Gaza border was because of the forces patrolling the area. Then you add his legal/political problems, and the case writes itself that he used this to help himself. It's not original, see Bush II. But so many innocent Palestinians and Israelis are dead because of it.
The dehumanization of Palestinians in the western media breaks my heart.
I don't have words for how disgusted I am with the blatant hypocrisy. And knowing as much about the backstory of Israel-Palestine as I do makes it worse. But we've seen this before.Joy Reid had a CIA analyst on her show on Monday saying there will have to be some investigation done because Israel's intel is among the best in the world. He also intimated that heads need to roll.
ScorpioBeauty09
Well-Known Member
I must say, the number of celebrities exposing their ignorance and anti-Palestinian sentiment is very disappointing. Especially from people who claim to be knowledgeable or have ties that would make you think otherwise.
nysister
Well-Known Member
I agree. I feel terrible for the Israeli people, but at least they're seen as people. All I hear is "barbarians", "animals", "sub-humans" when it comes to Palestinians as if they haven't been subjugated and had land stolen from them for 80 years. Extreme hypocrisy.Egypt already said they warned Netanyahu at least 10 days before it happened. At first Israel denied it, Egypt didn't back down and then Israeli media confirmed it. Netanyahu moved Israeli forces away from the Gaza-Israel border to focus on the illegal settlements/apartheid in the West Bank. The whole justification for allowing Israelis to live close to the Gaza border was because of the forces patrolling the area. Then you add his legal/political problems, and the case writes itself that he used this to help himself. It's not original, see Bush II. But so many innocent Palestinians and Israelis are dead because of it.
The dehumanization of Palestinians in the western media breaks my heart.
Joy Reid had a CIA analyst on her show on Monday saying there will have to be some investigation done because Israel's intel is among the best in the world. He also intimated that heads need to roll.
vevster
Well-Known Member
I hate that the Israelis are forcing people to pick a side.
There was an IG post naming Drake, Beyonce, and a bunch of others saying "Why haven't you made a statement?"
Adding: Biden lied AGAIN and said he saw pictures of the babies being beheaded. The IDF won't / can't confirm this. He is senile and obviously being led. Terrible look for us.
There was an IG post naming Drake, Beyonce, and a bunch of others saying "Why haven't you made a statement?"
Adding: Biden lied AGAIN and said he saw pictures of the babies being beheaded. The IDF won't / can't confirm this. He is senile and obviously being led. Terrible look for us.
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ScorpioBeauty09
Well-Known Member
Iwanthealthyhair67
Well-Known Member
This makes no sense to me, I'm sure they both have opinions but why should they voice them what, purpose what it serve?
vevster
Well-Known Member
They are trying to control the narrative, because they know what they have been doing to those people in Gaza.
Peppermynt
Defying Gravity
While I support the Palestinians and recognize the horrible imbalance of power here, I will never support or condone terrorism. Hamas is a terrorist organization with NO care for the actual Palestinians suffering through what they have now additionally wrought upon them. I liken it to what happened to us on 9/11 (and I was in NYC that day - flew in that same morning for a work meeting from DC and watched as a plane hit the first tower.) The United States' hands are in no way clean given the atrocities the US perpetrated on African Americans, Native Americans etc. but terrorist attacks harming innocent civilians will never get a pass in my book. Never.
Black Ambrosia
Well-Known Member
Harvard student groups who signed a pro Palestine statement blaming the situation on past Israeli actions are being doxxed and a few CEOs are demanding to know who they are so they can avoid hiring them.
nysister
Well-Known Member
Interesting OP-ed from someone located in the Gaza strip. - The article is unlocked.
www.nytimes.com
Opinion | What More Must the Children of Gaza Suffer?
Israel’s bombing of Gaza has taken its toll on families.
vevster
Well-Known Member
I'm hearing that the US in its support of Ukraine is reaching critical levels or ammunition and can't supply both Ukraine and Israel. In other news, in addition to ammo, the Israeli army is having issues mobilizing calling reservists, they don't have a proper inventory of uniforms etc. I guess they never expected to actually fight.
ScorpioBeauty09
Well-Known Member
I just saw that. It's taking too long for Israel to start the ground invasion and I use that term loosely because it's just going to be a massacre. Not to mention the more troops they have in Gaza, the less protection they have in the north, where Hezbollah is considering entering the fight. The Israelis have already bombed the airports at Aleppo and Damascus in Syria, in addition to Lebanon which could bring them in. The Israeli military is good but not invincible.
And because I'm paying attention to the astrology of all this, I have to note we are in eclipse season. We have one eclipse on Saturday and another one in two weeks. You do not want to begin anything major during eclipse season because you can break off more than you can chew. Yes Hamas bombed Israel first but launching a ground assault takes the conflict a new level. Israel might be starting a fight they cannot win.
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vevster
Well-Known Member
This is interesting, didn't we have eclipses last month as well?
ScorpioBeauty09
Well-Known Member
No. The last eclipses were in April-May.
This. A few days before this happened, my college kid stumbled upon a website doxxing college kids for the most minor support of Palestinian people… things as simple as having once signed a petition against settlers taking over people’s family homes in Palestinian villages in the West Bank. Now college kids are losing jobs they were supposed to have after graduation and being blacklisted from Wall Street and law firms, for releasing a statement in support of Palestinian people, which is different from supporting Hamas and terrorism. I told my kid that it’s best not to sign anything, and at most, only express sorrow at the loss of innocent life on both sides.
nysister
Well-Known Member
That last sentence really seems the best, especially for young people.
nysister
Well-Known Member
‘I can’t save them’: Time running out at Gaza hospitals amid power blackout
Life-saving machines running on generators will soon stop working, amid Israel’s refusal to allow fuel supplies.
Black Ambrosia
Well-Known Member
I doubt it even matters if they sign anything tbh. If you belong to a group that signed off on that statement then you’ll probably be doxxed too. No one cares to do any due diligence and the info wouldn’t have been available anyway.