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The Covid-19 Thread: News, Preparation Tips, Etc

dancinstallion

Well-Known Member

COVID-19 Fatality Rate Down 30% Since April Study Finds​

By Deena Beasley
November 16, 2020


  • ADD TO EMAIL ALERTS


(Reuters) - The likelihood that a coronavirus infection will prove fatal has dropped by nearly a third since April due to improved treatment, researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) said on Thursday.

In the United States, COVID-19 now kills about 0.6% of people infected with the virus, compared with around 0.9% early in the pandemic, IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray told Reuters.
He said statistics reflect that doctors have figured out better ways to care for patients, including the use of blood thinners and oxygen support. Effective treatments, such as the generic steroid dexamethasone, have also been identified.
Experts have struggled to accurately measure a crucial metric in the pandemic: the fatality rate, or percentage of people infected with the pathogen who are likely to die. The difficulty is exacerbated by the fact that many people who become infected do not experience symptoms and are never identified.


IHME said it had been using an infection-fatality rate (IFR) derived from surveys after accounting for age. Older people are at much higher risk of dying from COVID-19 than younger people.
"We know the risk is profoundly age-related. For every one year of age, the risk of death increases by 9%," Murray said.
The Seattle institute, an influential source of COVID-19 forecasts (https://bit.ly/35sTESX), said it has also determined that the fatality rate for COVID-19 is worse in communities with high levels of obesity.
The group said it has now switched to an IFR that varies over time - declining since the first pandemic wave in March and April by around 0.19% per day until the beginning of September.

It also varies across locations as a function of obesity prevalence, and continues to vary based on population distribution by age.

IHME said its analysis of age-standardized fatality rates from more than 300 surveys suggests a 30% decline since March/April.

Despite that positive trend, infections and hospitalizations have spiked across the country in recent weeks. The group said its modeling suggests 439,000 cumulative U.S. deaths by March 1, and a peak of daily deaths in mid-January at 2,200.



Reuters Health Information © 2020
Cite this: COVID-19 Fatality Rate Down 30% Since April Study Finds - Medscape - Nov 13, 2020.



Expert Commentary
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According to INFECTIOUS DISEASE PHYSICIANS
  1. Rinse and Repeat? Mouthwash Might Mitigate COVID-19 Spread
  2. What Is the Risk of Catching the Coronavirus on a Plane?
  3. Dear Commissioner Hahn: Tell the Truth or Resign
  4. Restaurants May Be Key Component to COVID-19 Spread
  5. Wear a Mask While Having Sex, Canada's Top Doctor Suggests
 

dancinstallion

Well-Known Member

COVID-19 Fatality Rate Down 30% Since April Study Finds​

By Deena Beasley
November 16, 2020


  • ADD TO EMAIL ALERTS


(Reuters) - The likelihood that a coronavirus infection will prove fatal has dropped by nearly a third since April due to improved treatment, researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) said on Thursday.

In the United States, COVID-19 now kills about 0.6% of people infected with the virus, compared with around 0.9% early in the pandemic, IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray told Reuters.
He said statistics reflect that doctors have figured out better ways to care for patients, including the use of blood thinners and oxygen support. Effective treatments, such as the generic steroid dexamethasone, have also been identified.
Experts have struggled to accurately measure a crucial metric in the pandemic: the fatality rate, or percentage of people infected with the pathogen who are likely to die. The difficulty is exacerbated by the fact that many people who become infected do not experience symptoms and are never identified.


IHME said it had been using an infection-fatality rate (IFR) derived from surveys after accounting for age. Older people are at much higher risk of dying from COVID-19 than younger people.
"We know the risk is profoundly age-related. For every one year of age, the risk of death increases by 9%," Murray said.
The Seattle institute, an influential source of COVID-19 forecasts (https://bit.ly/35sTESX), said it has also determined that the fatality rate for COVID-19 is worse in communities with high levels of obesity.
The group said it has now switched to an IFR that varies over time - declining since the first pandemic wave in March and April by around 0.19% per day until the beginning of September.

It also varies across locations as a function of obesity prevalence, and continues to vary based on population distribution by age.

IHME said its analysis of age-standardized fatality rates from more than 300 surveys suggests a 30% decline since March/April.

Despite that positive trend, infections and hospitalizations have spiked across the country in recent weeks. The group said its modeling suggests 439,000 cumulative U.S. deaths by March 1, and a peak of daily deaths in mid-January at 2,200.



Reuters Health Information © 2020
Cite this: COVID-19 Fatality Rate Down 30% Since April Study Finds - Medscape - Nov 13, 2020.



Expert Commentary
Most Popular Articles
According to INFECTIOUS DISEASE PHYSICIANS
  1. Rinse and Repeat? Mouthwash Might Mitigate COVID-19 Spread
  2. What Is the Risk of Catching the Coronavirus on a Plane?
  3. Dear Commissioner Hahn: Tell the Truth or Resign
  4. Restaurants May Be Key Component to COVID-19 Spread
  5. Wear a Mask While Having Sex, Canada's Top Doctor Suggests

My brother in law who lives in a hotspot in Texas says the media is exaggerating. Dh told him they are building tents in your city and he said he hasn't seen any and why dont we talk about all the survivors. Brother is law is a Physician Assistant by the way.


Dh said his brother sounds like me at the beginning of the pandemic. Even if the death rate is below 1%; I think people, especially medical professionals, should be careful what we say generally because Covid is taking lives and whole families out and it shouldn't be taken lightly.
Covid-19 still isnt real for far too many people and we are 8-9 months into the pandemic. At this point there is no way to convince those people unless they experience it one way or another.
 

B_Phlyy

Pineapple Eating Unicorn

My brother in law who lives in a hotspot in Texas says the media is exaggerating. Dh told him they are building tents in your city and he said he hasn't seen any and why dont we talk about all the survivors. Brother is law is a Physician Assistant by the way.


Dh said his brother sounds like me at the beginning of the pandemic. Even if the death rate is below 1%; I think people, especially medical professionals, should be careful what we say generally because Covid is taking lives and whole families out and it shouldn't be taken lightly.
Covid-19 still isnt real for far too many people and we are 8-9 months into the pandemic. At this point there is no way to convince those people unless they experience it one way or another.

I agree with your BIL but only on the part that we should talk about the survivors. Many are focusing on the low fatality rate but not the permanent adverse lifestyle changes people have to make due to a COVID diagnosis. We have patients who were positive back in March and April who are still complaining of daily coughing due to COVID. Or patients with no previously significant cardiac problems now on antihypertensive meds and blood thinners. So yes, these people are still alive, but they are not healthy and now have to have a litany of medication and specialists they have to see.

Someone stated earlier when the pandemic started that the worst thing about this virus is that the signs and symptoms were so subtle people weren't buying it as real. And that unfortunately has proved to be true which is why this is still out of control. Because if the symptoms of this were crying blood with uncontrollable diarrhea, there would have been no issue with mask wearing and a stay at home order.
 

Crackers Phinn

Either A Blessing Or A Lesson.
I noticed that as the number of cases has skyrocketed the death rate was down after the super spreader holidays in May-June but but black folks are only 14%-15% of the population. When Covid hits a black city and die it's a blip in the map vs the overall numbers. We have high comorbidity rates aside from just obesity I would bet that the "healthy" black people who die from Covid carry the sickle cell anemia trait and don't know they had it. It's going to be years before all the nuance about who this virus is killing, why and the long term effects so the best thing people can do is avoid getting it in the first place.

I had a locksmith come to the office and he was humble bragging about how he had Covid back in March and "it wasn't so bad". He has no idea what could still be going on in his body due to the virus but he's preaching the gospel of nonchalance which I'm finding common with the people who get it .
 

naturalgyrl5199

Well-Known Member
I agree with your BIL but only on the part that we should talk about the survivors. Many are focusing on the low fatality rate but not the permanent adverse lifestyle changes people have to make due to a COVID diagnosis. We have patients who were positive back in March and April who are still complaining of daily coughing due to COVID. Or patients with no previously significant cardiac problems now on antihypertensive meds and blood thinners. So yes, these people are still alive, but they are not healthy and now have to have a litany of medication and specialists they have to see.

Someone stated earlier when the pandemic started that the worst thing about this virus is that the signs and symptoms were so subtle people weren't buying it as real. And that unfortunately has proved to be true which is why this is still out of control. Because if the symptoms of this were crying blood with uncontrollable diarrhea, there would have been no issue with mask wearing and a stay at home order.
Those LONG HAULERS are going to have their story heard. Alyssa Milano posted about her hair still falling out months later. So sad. I think it was posted here.
 

Black Ambrosia

Well-Known Member
I noticed that as the number of cases has skyrocketed the death rate was down after the super spreader holidays in May-June but but black folks are only 14%-15% of the population. When Covid hits a black city and die it's a blip in the map vs the overall numbers. We have high comorbidity rates aside from just obesity I would bet that the "healthy" black people who die from Covid carry the sickle cell anemia trait and don't know they had it. It's going to be years before all the nuance about who this virus is killing, why and the long term effects so the best thing people can do is avoid getting it in the first place.

I had a locksmith come to the office and he was humble bragging about how he had Covid back in March and "it wasn't so bad". He has no idea what could still be going on in his body due to the virus but he's preaching the gospel of nonchalance which I'm finding common with the people who get it .
Yep. I’ve definitely seen that up close. Humble bragging and talking about the only people who die were already gonna die while fearful about going back to the nursing home he runs and most likely got it from. Like pick a side and stick with it. Either you’re too healthy for it to take you down or it’s a real threat. He’s an :censored: btw if you couldn’t tell.
 

Crackers Phinn

Either A Blessing Or A Lesson.
WHAT THEE :censored: MAYNNNNNN!?!?!?!?

Gavin Newsom apologizes for breaking lockdown to go to a dinner party as California put under new rules​

The governor was part of a group of more than 12 people who went to the birthday celebration at Napa’s famed French Laundry​

California governor Gavin Newsom has apologized for the “bad mistake” he made in attending a birthday party that defied the state’s Covid-19 restrictions. Gov. Newsom was part of a group of more than 12 people who celebrated the birthday of political advisor Jason Kinney at the famed French Laundry restaurant in Napa Valley. The governor said that as soon as he arrived at the party he realized the group was larger than anticipated.

“I made a bad mistake," he said. “Instead of sitting down, I should have stood up and walked back, got in my car and drove back to my house.

“Instead, I chose to sit there with my wife and a number of other couples that were outside the household.” The group at the party on 6 November included people from several different households. California currently limits events to no more than three households. A spokesperson for Gov. Newsom initially said that the dinner did not violate state restrictions as it was held outdoors and that everyone followed guidelines and wore face masks. But Gov. Newsom accepted he had broken the “spirit” of his state’s guidelines. “You can quibble about the guidelines, et cetera, et cetera, but the spirit of what I'm preaching all the time was contradicted and I got to own that. “And so I want to apologize to you, because I need to preach and practice, not just preach and not practice, and I've done my best to do that.

“We're all human. We all fall short sometimes.”

State guidance, which was updated on 9 October, does not specify if the three household limitation applies to outdoor dining.
But the state’s Department of Health has mandated that multiple household gatherings are held outside, where transmission risks are lower, and last for less than two hours.
 

Crackers Phinn

Either A Blessing Or A Lesson.
The fact that whoever threw that party and invited the governor knowing they were in full violation of the governors rules shows that his sorry is about being caught. That his natural inclination when he saw what could have easily been a super spreader event was not to pull somebody aside and cuss them out for putting him in that situation and demand that they either get in compliance or get gone let me know he is not getting my vote in the next election. I am tired of these damn politicians not being ready for prime time when I'm out here every day trying to keep people in my field of influence safe. I know that I can only do so much but I expect the people who can do much more to actually do it especially when they talk cash poo about how the other side falls down on the job.
 

lavaflow99

In search of the next vacation
I agree with your BIL but only on the part that we should talk about the survivors. Many are focusing on the low fatality rate but not the permanent adverse lifestyle changes people have to make due to a COVID diagnosis. We have patients who were positive back in March and April who are still complaining of daily coughing due to COVID. Or patients with no previously significant cardiac problems now on antihypertensive meds and blood thinners. So yes, these people are still alive, but they are not healthy and now have to have a litany of medication and specialists they have to see.

Someone stated earlier when the pandemic started that the worst thing about this virus is that the signs and symptoms were so subtle people weren't buying it as real. And that unfortunately has proved to be true which is why this is still out of control. Because if the symptoms of this were crying blood with uncontrollable diarrhea, there would have been no issue with mask wearing and a stay at home order.
Like Ebola.
 

Lylddlebit

Well-Known Member
WHAT THEE :censored: MAYNNNNNN!?!?!?!?

Gavin Newsom apologizes for breaking lockdown to go to a dinner party as California put under new rules​

The governor was part of a group of more than 12 people who went to the birthday celebration at Napa’s famed French Laundry​

California governor Gavin Newsom has apologized for the “bad mistake” he made in attending a birthday party that defied the state’s Covid-19 restrictions. Gov. Newsom was part of a group of more than 12 people who celebrated the birthday of political advisor Jason Kinney at the famed French Laundry restaurant in Napa Valley. The governor said that as soon as he arrived at the party he realized the group was larger than anticipated.

“I made a bad mistake," he said. “Instead of sitting down, I should have stood up and walked back, got in my car and drove back to my house.

“Instead, I chose to sit there with my wife and a number of other couples that were outside the household.” The group at the party on 6 November included people from several different households. California currently limits events to no more than three households. A spokesperson for Gov. Newsom initially said that the dinner did not violate state restrictions as it was held outdoors and that everyone followed guidelines and wore face masks. But Gov. Newsom accepted he had broken the “spirit” of his state’s guidelines. “You can quibble about the guidelines, et cetera, et cetera, but the spirit of what I'm preaching all the time was contradicted and I got to own that. “And so I want to apologize to you, because I need to preach and practice, not just preach and not practice, and I've done my best to do that.

“We're all human. We all fall short sometimes.”

State guidance, which was updated on 9 October, does not specify if the three household limitation applies to outdoor dining.
But the state’s Department of Health has mandated that multiple household gatherings are held outside, where transmission risks are lower, and last for less than two hours.
I don't have a lot of hope that we can stop fools from being fools amongst fools. However I am still mad that the police knocked on my door the other night and had the wrong address with about 10 emergency vehicles outside given that my household has taken social distancing and health measures seriously since March and someone in need likely made that 911 call. I just want to avoid reckless, irresponsible and unintelligent folk. I feel really bad for those who would social distance if they could but don't have the means to side step fools in this time. When I see stories like this I get irritated. I know there are natural consequence's to reckless folks being dumb but I get irritated at the thought of the servers who have to go to work and be around that...the nurses and doctors who have to treat them if they get sick. Stuff like that. People who are reckless with themselves are rarely mindful of others and don't get me wrong, I have my PPE and limit my need to go anywhere these days but it's still troubling to see these examples.
 
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Everything Zen

Well-Known Member
WHAT THEE :censored: MAYNNNNNN!?!?!?!?

Gavin Newsom apologizes for breaking lockdown to go to a dinner party as California put under new rules​

The governor was part of a group of more than 12 people who went to the birthday celebration at Napa’s famed French Laundry​

California governor Gavin Newsom has apologized for the “bad mistake” he made in attending a birthday party that defied the state’s Covid-19 restrictions. Gov. Newsom was part of a group of more than 12 people who celebrated the birthday of political advisor Jason Kinney at the famed French Laundry restaurant in Napa Valley. The governor said that as soon as he arrived at the party he realized the group was larger than anticipated.

“I made a bad mistake," he said. “Instead of sitting down, I should have stood up and walked back, got in my car and drove back to my house.

“Instead, I chose to sit there with my wife and a number of other couples that were outside the household.” The group at the party on 6 November included people from several different households. California currently limits events to no more than three households. A spokesperson for Gov. Newsom initially said that the dinner did not violate state restrictions as it was held outdoors and that everyone followed guidelines and wore face masks. But Gov. Newsom accepted he had broken the “spirit” of his state’s guidelines. “You can quibble about the guidelines, et cetera, et cetera, but the spirit of what I'm preaching all the time was contradicted and I got to own that. “And so I want to apologize to you, because I need to preach and practice, not just preach and not practice, and I've done my best to do that.

“We're all human. We all fall short sometimes.”

State guidance, which was updated on 9 October, does not specify if the three household limitation applies to outdoor dining.
But the state’s Department of Health has mandated that multiple household gatherings are held outside, where transmission risks are lower, and last for less than two hours.

He’s suspect anyway based on his previous choice in women.
 

Black Ambrosia

Well-Known Member

Crackers Phinn

Either A Blessing Or A Lesson.
I don't have a lot of hope that we can stop fools from being fools amongst fools. However I am still mad that the police knocked on my door the other night and had the wrong address with about 10 emergency vehicles outside given that my household has taken social distancing and health measures seriously since March and someone in need likely made that 911 call. I just want to avoid reckless, irresponsible and unintelligent folk. I feel really bad for those who would social distance if they could but don't have the means to side step fools in this time. When I see stories like this I get irritated. I know there are natural consequence's to reckless folks being dumb but I get irritated at the thought of the servers who have to go to work and be around that...the nurses and doctors who have to treat them if they get sick. Stuff like that. People who are reckless with themselves are rarely mindful of others and don't get me wrong, I have my PPE and limit my need to go anywhere these days but it's still troubling to see these examples.
There's few things that would make me happier now than if Covid could be contained only to the people running around acting reckless. Almost every case of Covid that I've had to do contact tracing on is because people stubbornly did the exact opposite of what they were told to do.
 

vevster

Well-Known Member
WHAT THEE :censored: MAYNNNNNN!?!?!?!?

Gavin Newsom apologizes for breaking lockdown to go to a dinner party as California put under new rules​

The governor was part of a group of more than 12 people who went to the birthday celebration at Napa’s famed French Laundry​

California governor Gavin Newsom has apologized for the “bad mistake” he made in attending a birthday party that defied the state’s Covid-19 restrictions. Gov. Newsom was part of a group of more than 12 people who celebrated the birthday of political advisor Jason Kinney at the famed French Laundry restaurant in Napa Valley. The governor said that as soon as he arrived at the party he realized the group was larger than anticipated.

“I made a bad mistake," he said. “Instead of sitting down, I should have stood up and walked back, got in my car and drove back to my house.

“Instead, I chose to sit there with my wife and a number of other couples that were outside the household.” The group at the party on 6 November included people from several different households. California currently limits events to no more than three households. A spokesperson for Gov. Newsom initially said that the dinner did not violate state restrictions as it was held outdoors and that everyone followed guidelines and wore face masks. But Gov. Newsom accepted he had broken the “spirit” of his state’s guidelines. “You can quibble about the guidelines, et cetera, et cetera, but the spirit of what I'm preaching all the time was contradicted and I got to own that. “And so I want to apologize to you, because I need to preach and practice, not just preach and not practice, and I've done my best to do that.

“We're all human. We all fall short sometimes.”

State guidance, which was updated on 9 October, does not specify if the three household limitation applies to outdoor dining.
But the state’s Department of Health has mandated that multiple household gatherings are held outside, where transmission risks are lower, and last for less than two hours.
SMH ----
 
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